If only from the analysis of operational data, the chemical fiber industry is in good shape in the first half of this year, and a number of indicators have grown steadily year-on-year. “The first half of this year was better than the first half of last year†is the consensus in the industry. However, if we judge the chemical fiber industry will continue to improve in the second half of this year, it will greatly deviate from the actual situation. According to the comprehensive analysis of the industry, the situation in the chemical fiber industry in the second half of the year is not optimistic. The overall level in the year will be lower than last year.
According to the relevant data provided by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, from January to May this year, chemical fiber production maintained a relatively rapid growth, output reached 13.3022 million tons, an increase of 15.43% year-on-year; from January to May, chemical fiber exports increased rapidly, export volume reached 1.153 million tons , a substantial increase of 45.62% year-on-year; from January to May, the total profit of the chemical fiber industry was 12.656 billion yuan, an increase of 56.9% year-on-year. Behind these seemingly gratifying data, one thing is worthy of caution: Since April, the growth rate of various indicators in the chemical fiber industry has gradually declined compared with the previous months, especially in the viscose fiber industry due to the drastic price of raw materials. Affected by volatility, the previous period's profits have been exhausted and some companies have suffered losses. Some people believe that the recent decline in the growth rate of the chemical fiber industry may indicate that the annual operating inflection point has arrived.
The most worried about the second half of the year is demand. From the perspective of exports, in the first half of the year, although the growth in exports of chemical fiber was relatively rapid, it was mainly affected by the increase in product prices, and the actual export growth was relatively slow, indicating that the global economy did not imagine that it would recover well. The rumors of export tax rebate adjustment also have a great influence on the market mentality. In the second half of the year, these factors constraining exports still exist. Domestic demand was relatively stable. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by about 15% year-on-year, but the continuous increase in CPI was an important factor. In fact, the rapid rise in unit prices and the slow or even declining sales volume are still the domestic demand situation facing the industry in the second half of the year. With the influence of macro factors such as a prudent monetary policy, demand is unlikely to be strong in the second half of the year.
The change in cotton prices is still the focus of the chemical fiber industry. Some varieties of chemical fiber have an alternative relationship with cotton. The raw materials of some varieties are related to cotton. The fluctuation of cotton, a major textile raw material, will affect the price trend of chemical fiber products to a large extent. This conclusion has been confirmed several times this year.
Overall, in the second half of the year, the country will still work hard to adjust surpluses and regulate prices. Therefore, it is expected that industrial policies will be tight and the power supply situation is not optimistic. The price fluctuation of chemical fiber raw materials has increased, and the company’s operating risks have increased. The effective growth of downstream demand is the key to the trend of the chemical fiber market. With the release of new production capacity, however, it is unlikely that the price of major products will rise sharply. The industry will absorb most of the rising cost of raw materials. According to the forecast of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the annual chemical fiber production in 2011 is expected to reach 33 million tons, an increase of about 12% year-on-year; import volume will be slightly reduced by 5%, and imports are expected to reach 850,000 tons; the export volume will continue to increase, and it is expected to export 2.6 million tons. , an increase of about 35% year-on-year; industry economic benefits have declined, the total annual profit is expected to be about 20 billion to 22 billion; the quality of the industry may experience a deterioration.
According to the relevant data provided by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, from January to May this year, chemical fiber production maintained a relatively rapid growth, output reached 13.3022 million tons, an increase of 15.43% year-on-year; from January to May, chemical fiber exports increased rapidly, export volume reached 1.153 million tons , a substantial increase of 45.62% year-on-year; from January to May, the total profit of the chemical fiber industry was 12.656 billion yuan, an increase of 56.9% year-on-year. Behind these seemingly gratifying data, one thing is worthy of caution: Since April, the growth rate of various indicators in the chemical fiber industry has gradually declined compared with the previous months, especially in the viscose fiber industry due to the drastic price of raw materials. Affected by volatility, the previous period's profits have been exhausted and some companies have suffered losses. Some people believe that the recent decline in the growth rate of the chemical fiber industry may indicate that the annual operating inflection point has arrived.
The most worried about the second half of the year is demand. From the perspective of exports, in the first half of the year, although the growth in exports of chemical fiber was relatively rapid, it was mainly affected by the increase in product prices, and the actual export growth was relatively slow, indicating that the global economy did not imagine that it would recover well. The rumors of export tax rebate adjustment also have a great influence on the market mentality. In the second half of the year, these factors constraining exports still exist. Domestic demand was relatively stable. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by about 15% year-on-year, but the continuous increase in CPI was an important factor. In fact, the rapid rise in unit prices and the slow or even declining sales volume are still the domestic demand situation facing the industry in the second half of the year. With the influence of macro factors such as a prudent monetary policy, demand is unlikely to be strong in the second half of the year.
The change in cotton prices is still the focus of the chemical fiber industry. Some varieties of chemical fiber have an alternative relationship with cotton. The raw materials of some varieties are related to cotton. The fluctuation of cotton, a major textile raw material, will affect the price trend of chemical fiber products to a large extent. This conclusion has been confirmed several times this year.
Overall, in the second half of the year, the country will still work hard to adjust surpluses and regulate prices. Therefore, it is expected that industrial policies will be tight and the power supply situation is not optimistic. The price fluctuation of chemical fiber raw materials has increased, and the company’s operating risks have increased. The effective growth of downstream demand is the key to the trend of the chemical fiber market. With the release of new production capacity, however, it is unlikely that the price of major products will rise sharply. The industry will absorb most of the rising cost of raw materials. According to the forecast of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the annual chemical fiber production in 2011 is expected to reach 33 million tons, an increase of about 12% year-on-year; import volume will be slightly reduced by 5%, and imports are expected to reach 850,000 tons; the export volume will continue to increase, and it is expected to export 2.6 million tons. , an increase of about 35% year-on-year; industry economic benefits have declined, the total annual profit is expected to be about 20 billion to 22 billion; the quality of the industry may experience a deterioration.
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