The price of cotton is dilemma, hard to achieve

Around March each year, China's cotton demand begins to enter the peak season, but this year still continues the situation of the peak season after the Spring Festival in 2011, which undoubtedly makes the current cotton industry already in a weak atmosphere worse. The only hope in the market is shattered. Where will the cotton price go?

The storage and storage mechanism underpinned the investigation of the limited space in order to protect the interests of cotton farmers and protect the cultivation enthusiasm of cotton farmers. The State started the mechanism of storage and collection from 2011, and the 2011/2012 cotton storage and storage price of 19,800 yuan/ton stabilized the cotton price, even if The European debt crisis continued to weigh on commodities and the US Department of Agriculture released a negative report on the supply and demand of cotton. The price of Zheng cotton is still holding at the closing price of 19,800 yuan/ton. In 2012, after the cotton price rebounded, it started to decline weakly and the market pessimism renewed. The investor's concerned 2012/2013 purchase and storage prices were launched as scheduled at the end of February, although the purchase price of 20,600 yuan/ton was 21,000 yuan more than the market expected. There is a gap between the two countries, but the country has raised the reserve price by RMB 600/ton, which indicates that the era of low cotton prices has become a thing of the past, and there is little possibility that the price of cotton will fall sharply.

The cotton planting intention to reduce support for cotton prices entered in March, and agencies will release spring planting cotton planting areas in succession. Can cotton storage and storage prices in 2012/2013 stabilize cotton farmers' cotton planting intentions? From our analysis, in order to stabilize food production this year, the minimum food protection price has been raised by 18 yuan per jin, and the grain-cotton ratio is below 1:7, far below the normal 1:10 level. The low ratio of grain and cotton income cannot boost the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, and due to the low degree of mechanization of cotton cultivation, the cultivation of cotton is laborious. It is expected that the planting area of ​​the cotton planting area will decline significantly. In contrast, foreign countries, the United States, India cotton prices lower than our country's cotton prices, cotton planting area also faced a substantial decline. The area of ​​cotton planting declined and became the second card in the hands of the market's bulls.

Storage and storage are about to end throwing storage is expected to start 2011/2012 new cotton storage will end on March 31, 2012, is expected that domestic cotton reserves will reach 3 million tons. The surplus cotton in the market is basically returned to the State Reserve. The question is: How will the country turn round this year in order to meet the cotton storage and storage capacity in 2012/2013? The author conjectures that with the current cotton situation, before the end of purchasing and storage, and before the cotton spring planting area is set, the country will absolutely not be able to choose to dump the stock, because it will offset the new year's price of 20,600 yuan/tonne storage and stable cotton planting. The effect of the area. In addition, the country is also unlikely to choose a loss-bearing stockpiling. Considering the cost of storage and storage of cotton, the cost of warehousing, the cost of interest on funds, and the accumulation of profits, the country needs to wait until the market price of cotton rises to about 20,700 yuan/ton. Select throw deposit. In view of the above factors affecting throwing reserves, the timing may be in June and July. Between this time, Zheng cotton prices may still have a slight rebound, but the margin is limited.

“Don’t prosperous during the peak season” determines that the demand for cotton is unlikely to arrive as expected during the busy season in March. Global cotton in 2011/2012 is in a state of oversupply. Coupled with the fragile downstream demand, there is no doubt that cotton will be further surplus. The market thought that the current cotton inventory of downstream textile companies was not high, and in March it should start a wave of small tides of supplemental inventory, and the result was defeated. The mentality of the downstream cotton enterprises is even more pessimistic, and it is generally not optimistic about the cotton market outlook. In the case of unabated supply pressure, demand determines the upside for cotton prices. Now that the peak season is not fulfilling, the price of cotton can hardly be increased.

In summary, the peak season of cotton does not continue, and under the influence of common factors such as reliance on the collection and storage mechanism, reduction in the area of ​​cotton planting, and anticipation of stockpiling after the completion of storage, the price of cotton is extremely difficult and difficult.


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