On Monday (August 29th), the tightness of interbank funds continued to ease, but overnight lending was still tight. Analysts said that the liquidity regulation of the central bank to promote market down leverage is expected to continue, but with the gradual digestion of market expectations, the funds are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Open market for the fifth consecutive day
On Monday, the central bank launched a 60-billion-day 7-day reverse repurchase operation and a 30-billion-day 14-day reverse repurchase operation with interest rate bidding. The winning bid rate remained unchanged at 2.25% and 2.40% respectively. As a result, since the 14-day reverse repurchase restart on Wednesday, the central bank has carried out the reverse repurchase operation for the fourth consecutive trading day. According to statistics, on Monday, the open market had 110 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, and the 51.5 billion central bank bills that expired on Saturday were also extended to this Monday, so the central bank yesterday invested a net of 31.5 billion yuan in the open market. Provide short-term liquidity support for the fifth consecutive trading day.
In the latest performance of the inter-bank market funds, the currency market as a whole remained stable on Monday, and the tightening was somewhat relieved from last week. According to WIND data, the weighted average interest rates of pledged repo (deposit institutions) of banks at night, 7 days, 14 days and 1 month were 2.08%, 2.30%, 2.45% and 2.65%, respectively. Compared with the previous trading day (last Friday), the overnight and 14-day varieties increased by 5 basis points and 1 basis point respectively, and the 14-day and 1-month repurchase rates fell by 7 basis points and 6 basis points respectively.
Traders said that the tightness of the interbank market funds continued to ease on Monday and liquidity supply improved. In the context of falling leverage, the large banks increased their financial resources for a longer period of time. The overnight supply ratio decreased and the overnight interest rate also increased.
Short-term capital fabrics are generally stable
At present, the mainstream view of the market generally believes that although the structural convergence pattern of funds is expected to continue, the background of the central bank's policy convergence is relatively limited, the bank is slightly more promising, and the market expects to continue to gradually digest. Although it may be difficult to get rid of the tight balance, the overall situation will remain generally stable.
Haitong Securities 600,837, shares believe that the central bank's monetary easing continues to be postponed, mainly due to four reasons. First, the real estate bubble is high, the central bank's intention to control leverage is obvious, the second is the risk of rebound in the fourth quarter, the third is the short-term stability of the economy, and the fourth is that the US interest rate hike is still expected during the year. Overall, since August, economic inflation has remained basically stable. It is expected that monetary policy will remain neutral, and the monetary interest rate center will remain at 2.25%-2.5% for the next three months.
Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said in a speech at the annual meeting of global central bankers held in Jackson Hole on Friday that the possibility of raising interest rates in recent months has increased. In this regard, analysts said that although Yellen did not specify when the Fed will raise interest rates, it may still lay the groundwork for the earliest rate hike in September. From the perspective of the external environment, the strength of the US dollar may increase. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate and domestic funds will still have certain adverse effects.
This week, the public market has a total of 535 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, all 7-day varieties. Taking into account the actual situation of the current funds and the end of the month, analysts said that the short-term open market is expected to remain operating at around 100 billion yuan a day, and continue to ensure the market liquidity is generally stable. The short-term funding is expected to continue to maintain the pattern of tighter overnight and more supply during other periods.
(Editor: Liu Suyuan HN091)Textile Polyester Raw Yarn,Conductive Yarns Textiles,Conductive Textile Yarn,Conductive Thread E-textiles
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