Merkel seeks four consecutive terms, and the extra-party competition and refugee problems become the biggest variable
Article introduction: On November 20th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel officially announced that he would participate in the German general election held in September 2017, seeking the re-election of the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union, and serving as the party's candidate for the prime minister.
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(This article was published in China Economic Weekly, Issue 46, 2016)
China Economic Weekly reporter Zhang Yan | Beijing Report
On November 20th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel officially announced that he would participate in the German general election held in September 2017, seeking to re-elect the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union and serving as the party's candidate for the prime minister.
At a press conference held in Berlin that evening, Merkel said that she had been asked many times whether she would re-elect. At that time, her answer was to choose the "appropriate opportunity" to announce the decision. "Now is the right time." Merkel said that in the past 11 years, she and the government led by her have achieved certain goals. Now she knows clearly how she will continue to govern if she is re-elected as German Chancellor.
As the longest-serving leader in Europe, Merkel’s decision to win the election undoubtedly gave her supporters a sigh of relief. Despite the decline in satisfaction due to refugee problems, polls show that 55% of Germans still support her to continue to govern. The 15-year ruling period is not awkward for the Germans. Far from the 14th year of the post-war Prime Minister Adenauer, he was recently re-elected for four consecutive "God's darling" Cole. Today, Merkel is expected to be the third German prime minister after the two, and is a female prime minister. If the re-election is successful, the "Queen of Europe" will continue to control the "German chariot" and embark on a four-year journey.
"I am fully aware of what must be done next"
Compared with the previous two re-elections, Merkel’s decision to declare the election is later than in the past. The refugee crisis and its response policies of the past year have caused Merkel to be criticized by public opinion, and the right-wing populist movement has also plagued German political and ruling coalitions. As she himself declared that the German society mentioned in the campaign speech is “facing a strong polarizationâ€, the political center (ruling coalition) faces challenges from all sides.
Merkel said that this decision was made after long-term consideration. She described the decision as "not a trivial matter" to Germany, to the CDU and to herself. She also stressed that the election campaign will be "different from previous elections", "the difficulty is at least unprecedented since the reunification of Germany", and her CDU is also facing challenges from the left and right.
In addition to the disputes between Germany's different political factions from left to right, she also considered the strong division of German society and the blame for Western values ​​and lifestyles in Europe and around the world. She said that the EU is currently in the midst of the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, and the great anxiety of the British exit from Europe. The post-election world pattern and Western relations with Russia also face reshuffle. Germany needs correct national policies.
"I am fully aware of what we must do next." Merkel said that in the current world situation, she is a heavy responsibility, and she has accumulated the necessary knowledge and experience in her long-term administration.
British political commentator Philip Stephens said that Merkel chose the best time to announce the election. Earlier, when the German anti-immigrant populist Germany’s New Choice Party took to the streets, Merkel, who was riddled by the refugee crisis, could hardly be re-elected again, and with the end of the US election, the storm brought by Trump swept On the other side of the Atlantic, "Germany and Europe without Merkel are almost unimaginable."
Extra-party competition and refugee issues have become the biggest variables
For Merkel, the biggest resistance to re-election comes from two aspects: the refugee policy that has been blamed and the rise of the German right-wing party.
A year ago, Merkel, who first opened the door to refugees, must have not anticipated that humanitarian decisions would push Germany and even Europe into the abyss of refugees. Last year, Germany accepted nearly 900,000 refugees, and the number of refugees accepted this year is also expected to be 300,000. The huge expenditures of resettlement refugees and the resulting social shocks and security problems have caused widespread dissatisfaction among the German public. How to treat and deal with the refugee problem has caused the German society to be clearly divided. Whoever bears the huge cost of resettling the refugees also causes major differences between the German government and the people, between the federal government and the state governments, and between the various parties.
In the past two years, violent incidents involving refugees in neighboring countries in Germany have spurred the nerves of the Germans. In late July 2016, the same violence took place in Germany, refugee policies began to be criticized, and a large number of German voters began to favor the right-wing parties. In the international arena, the European refugee movement has also made Merkel blamed by European allies, and is regarded as the responsible person of the worsening public order and terrorist threat in Germany and even Europe.
Under this circumstance, Merkel himself also paid a heavy political price, and the support rate went down all the way, even once reaching the lowest level since the ruling.
In the state legislature elections in several federal states in Germany in September this year, Merkel’s CDU was in a state of decline, and was frustrated in its former political base, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the capital, Berlin. Get a majority of seats. The Berlin election results show that the CDU only received 17.6% of the votes, setting a record low for the Berlin election.
The defeat of the parliamentary elections made Merkel openly reflect on his refugee policy for the first time in more than a year. On September 19th, Merkel publicly stated: "If possible, I will let time back to many, many years ago, so that I can make myself, the entire government and all responsible personnel better prepared for the late summer of 2015. Let us be caught off guard."
Merkel made this gesture to regain the voters who fell to the right-wing populist party. The German election party has soared this year by slamming Merkel’s refugee policy. What makes Merkel passive is that the CDU’s coalition party and the Bavarian ruling caucus also publicly expressed their views on Merkel’s refugee policy. Dissatisfied, and even once again reconsidered whether to support Merkel's re-election.
Since the outbreak of the refugee crisis, the coalition’s past solidarity has disappeared. Around the issue of refugees, the leader of the CDC, Zhoff, has repeatedly publicly expressed his disagreement with the position of the Merkel government, and there is no lack of publicity to Merkel himself. Because Bayern, the governor of Zhekhov, was the first stop for refugees to enter Germany, the work of border inspection and resettlement was already overwhelmed, and three of the four attacks occurred here, and that Zehnhof was against the Merkel government. The attitude has turned sharply. Earlier in the CDU's strategy committee meeting on the general election, Zehoff publicly stated that if the CDU does not change its attitude toward Germany's choice of the party, then the CSU may participate in the 2017 German election alone.
The winning odds of re-election?
Over the past few months, discussions about whether Merkel will seek re-election have been rampant. If it weren’t for the serious decline in the polls caused by the refugee problem, Merkel’s re-election seemed to be a matter of course for most Germans.
In the 11 years since he took office, Merkel has achieved remarkable results. At present, the German society, labor market and economic policies are mature and stable, and the economic development momentum is good. This female politician who came out from East Germany, with his superb political wisdom, grew from "Little Girl of Cole" to "Iron Lady" in politics. Under her leadership, German politics is relatively stable, the economy is remarkable, and its dominant position and role in European affairs has become increasingly prominent.
When he first took office in 2005, Merkel faced the mess left by former Schroeder: the fiscal deficit exceeded 3% of GDP for seven consecutive years, and the unemployment rate was as high as 12.6%. Under her hard work, Germany has weathered the difficult period. The unemployment rate in Germany has continued to decline, and the budget balance has been successfully achieved. The stock index has risen more than the world's major stock indexes. Not only that, Germany under the leadership of Merkel successfully resisted the global financial and economic crisis in 2009 and played a leading role in the eurozone debt crisis.
Daniel Hamilton, head of the Transatlantic Relations Center at the Nicholas School of Advanced International Studies in the United States, said in an interview that although Merkel promised to maintain the European agreement to create the euro zone, "she gives the impression that it represents German interests. Representing 'just power'. This has earned her a lot of support."
Julian Lapolde, head of the European Policy Research Center of the German Foreign Policy Association, said in an interview that the US presidential election, the Brexit and the rise of the right-wing forces in Europe have intensified the uncertainty of the international situation. Merkel has been The performance in dealing with international issues has undoubtedly added a lot of points for her to seek re-election at this time.
Since he took office, Merkel has promoted German values ​​throughout Europe and actively participated in international affairs. Whether it is the refugee crisis, the Greek bailout and the British referendum, Merkel's performance is remarkable. In the Ukrainian crisis, she blamed Putin for reversing international standards to the "law of the jungle". On the issue of providing more aid to Greece, she forced Greece to accept a bailout loan-for-loan bailout program. Such a ruling concept has undoubtedly made Merkel's reputation in the EU increasingly high. “She is the cornerstone for the maintenance of European problems,†Finnish Finance Minister and former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said in an interview. “As long as the problem is given to her, she will be able to slowly find a solution. Program."
The 62-year-old Merkel also received public support from US President Barack Obama. Obama visited Berlin on November 17th, the last stop of his visit to Europe. The outgoing US president called Merkel "his closest international partner" and joked that if he was a German, he would definitely vote for Merkel.
Some analysts believe that despite the difficulties, Merkel is still highly likely to seek re-election. From the domestic situation, the negative effects of refugee policies are gradually being controlled. With the West Balkan countries blocking the entry of refugees into the EU and the entry into force of the refugee repatriation agreement between the EU and Turkey, the number of refugees entering Germany this year has been significantly less than last year.
Wang Yizhen, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, believes that if Merck is to win elections in the election campaign in the next year, Merkel will not be able to rely on the current strategy. First of all, "Can we adjust the refugee policy? Can we make the EU have a clear road map on the refugee issue so that Germany does not pack for the whole of Europe?" Secondly, the benefits of German foreign investment are decreasing, and the German people are suffering from the impact of globalization, such as resource benefits, income issues, social welfare issues, and economic growth issues. This also requires Merkel to show her leadership. Convince these marginalized vulnerable groups. Enterprises are less profitable from globalization, and their views on globalization are not as optimistic as before. To persuade the refugees to oppose her inner and outer voices, to persuade the disadvantaged groups of globalization, we must also convince German companies to continue. Support her policy, either she has adjusted, or she wants to demonstrate such ability. This is the key to her ability to be elected.
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